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勰降娜耍欢ɑ峒觳檎庑┳什虼耍颐蔷兔挥斜匾屑觳榱恕Ｎ颐侵恍枰嫠恰�
是什么让这种狂热和这些故事持续了这么久？我们之所以陷入当前的经济和金融危机，在相当大程度上是因为一个错误的经济理论：一个本身就否认了动物精神在将我们送入狂热和恐慌中所起作用的经济理论。
经典理论的问题
可追溯至亚当？斯密（Adam Smith）及其在1776年出版的《国富论》（Wealth of Nations）一书的标准“经典”理论表示，经济基本上是稳定的。如果人们在自由市场上理性地追逐自身的经济利益，他们就会用尽所有生产商品以及与其他人交换商品的互惠机会。这种用尽互惠贸易机会的情况，将会带来充分就业。根据该理论，不可能会有其它的情况出现。
当然，有些工人将会失业。但他们找不到工作的原因，仅仅是因为他们正处于找工作的暂时过程中，或者因为他们坚持获得过高的工资。这类失业被认为是自愿失业，不会博得人们的同情。
经典理论还告诉我们，金融市场也会是稳定的。人们只会做自认为有利的交易。当进入金融市场时——购买股票或债券，或申请按揭，甚至购买非常复杂的证券——他们会做尽职调查，看看自己要买的东西，是否值得自己将要支付的价格或者要卖的东西。
该理论忽视的内容是，人们有时候会过于信赖他人。此外，它也没有考虑到，如果资本主义可以如此有利可图地运行，那么它将不仅仅会生产人们实际想要的东西，而且还会生产他们认为自己想要的东西。它可以生产人们想用来治病的药品。这是人们实际想要的东西。但如果它可以如此有利可图地运行，它也会生产人们误以为自己想要的东西。
它将会生产万金油。不仅如此：它可能还会生产对万金油的需求。这是资本主义不好的一面。标准经济理论未能考虑到这样一点：资产的买卖方可能不会做尽职调查，而市场不会针对其所购买的复杂证券所含的风险，向他们出售保险，而只会向他们出售万金油金融产品。
资本主义的本质
所有这些都蕴含着一条更为普遍的道理，有关资本主义的本质。一方面，我们希望利用亚当？斯密的智慧。在大部分时候，资本主义所生产的产品都是我们实际所需的，并且生产价格也是我们愿意和能够支付的。另一方面，当信心过高时，由于购买金融资产的人难以对这些资产进行估值，人们将愿意并且确实会购买万金油。而当人们意识到真相时——这是必然的——信心将会消失，经济将会恶化。
政府有职责在两个层面上保证上述情形不会发生。首先，它有责任去监管资产市场，这样人们才不会被误导购买万金油资产。针对金融资产的这类标准，与针对我们的食品、我们从药店购买的药品的标准一样符合常理。但我们不希望把资本主义的精华与糟粕一同抛弃。为了利用资本主义好的一部分，当波动出现时，政府有责任保证，那些能够并且打算生产其他人想购买的产品的人能够这么做。政府有责任通过其平衡性的财政和货币政策，维持充分就业。
这类经济背后的原理，并非社会主义经济背后的原理。政府只是在可能范围内创造有利于经济良好运行的宏观经济环境。
这就是政府的职责。它的职责就是确保“明智的放任自由”。这不是当前经济理论推荐的、自撒切尔（Thatcher）和里根（Reagan）政府以来许多经济规划者和经济学家似乎已当成真理的放任的资本主义。但它同时也是一条意义深远的中间路线：一面是认为无拘无束的资本主义将导致经济灾难和失业的阵营，另一面是认为政府根本不应该插手的阵营。
从资本主义社会的表现以及导致其发生危机的根源看，放任自由、不受监管的资本主义总能产生好结果的思想，是一种错误的经济理论。这一错误的经济理论没有考虑到动物精神是如何影响经济行为的。它没有考虑到信心、故事以及万金油对经济波动产生的影响。
本文作者是耶鲁大学（Yale University）阿瑟？奥肯（Arthur M。 Okun）经济学教授，并且是MacroMarkets的联合创办人兼首席经济学家
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译者/董琴
亚当·斯密遗漏了什么
经济学家希勒：以亚当？斯密为鼻祖的自由市场推崇者认为，人的经济行为是理性的。而凯恩斯洞察到，人在很多时候受“动物精神”驱使，因此政府仍有应当扮演的角色。
作者：MacroMarkets联合创办人兼首席经济学家罗伯特？希勒（Robert Shiller）为英国《金融时报》撰稿 2009…03…11
A failure to control the animal spirits
希勒：再谈凯恩斯的“动物精神”By Robert ShillerPublished： March 8 2009商业训练营 》 金融英语速读 》
Lydia Lopokova； wife of the economist John Maynard Keynes； was a famous ballerina。 She was also a Russian émigré。 Thus Keynes knew from the experience of his in…laws the horrors of living in the worst of socialist economies。 But he also knew first…hand the great difficulties that e from unregulated； unfettered capitalism。 He lived through the British depression of the 1920s and 1930s。 Thus Keynes was inspired to find a middle way for modern economies。We are seeing； in this financial crisis； a rebirth of Keynesian economics。 We are talking again of his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment； Interest and Money； which was written during the Great Depression。 This era； like the present； saw many calls to end capitalism as we know it。 The 1930s have been called the heyday of munism in western countries。 Keynes’s middle way would avoid the unemployment and the panics and manias of capitalism。 But it would also avoid the economic and political controls of munism。 The General Theory became the most important economics book of the 20th century because of its sensible balanced message。In times of high unemployment； creditworthy governments should expand demand by deficit spending。 Then； in times of low unemployment； governments should pay down the resultant debt。 With that seemingly minor change in procedures； a capitalist system can be stable。 There is no need for radical surgery on capitalism。Adherents to Keynes’s message were so eager to get this simple policy implemented； on both sides of the Atlantic； that they failed to notice – or perhaps they intentionally disregarded – that the General Theory also had a deeper； more fundamental message about how capitalism worked； if only briefly spelled out。 It explained why capitalist economies； left to their own devices； without the balancing of governments； were essentially unstable。 And it explained why； for capitalist economies to work well； the government should serve as a counterbalance。The key to this insight was the role Keynes gave to people’s psychological motivations。 These are usually ignored by macroeconomists。 Keynes called them animal spirits； and he thought they were especially important in determining people’s willingness to take risks。 Businessmen’s calculations； he said； were precarious： “Our basis of knowledge for estimating the yield 10 years hence of a railway； a copper mine； a textile factory； the goodwill of a patent medicine； an Atlantic liner； a building in the City of London amounts to little and sometimes to nothing。” Despite this； people somehow make decisions and act。 This “can only be taken as a result of animal spirits”。 There is “a spontaneous urge to action”。There are times when people are especially adventuresome – indeed； too much so。 Their adventures are supported in these times by a blithe faith in the future； and trust in economic institutions。 These are the upswing of the business cycle。 But then the animal spirits also veer in the other direction； and then people are too wary。George Akerlof and I； in our book Animal Spirits （Princeton 2009）； expand on Keynes’s concept and tie it in to modern literature on behavioural economics and psychology。 Much more clarity about the psychological underpinnings of animal spirits is possible today。For example； social psychologists； notably Roger Schank and Robert Abelson； have shown how much stories and storytelling； especially human…interest stories； motivate much of human behaviour。 These stories can count for much more than abstract calculation。 People’s economic moods are largely based on the stories that people tell themselves and tell each other that are related to the economy。We have seen these stories e and go in rapid succession in recent years。 We first had the dot bubble and the envy…producing stories of young millionaires。 It burst in 2000； but was soon replaced with another bubble； involving smart “flippers” of properties。This mania was the product not only of a story about people but also a story about how the economy worked。 It was part of a story that all investments in securitised mortgages were safe because those smart people were buying them。 Those enviable people who are buying these assets must be checking on them； therefore we do not need to。 We need only run alongside them。What allowed this mania and these stories to persist as long as they did？ To a remarkable extent we have got into the current economic and financial crisis because of a wrong economic theory – an economic theory that itself denied the role of the animal spirits in getting us into manias and panics。According to the standard “classical” theory； which goes back to Adam Smith with his Wealth of Nations in 1776； the economy is essentially stable。 If people rationally pursue their own economic interests in free markets they will exhaust all mutually beneficial opportunities to produce goods and exchange with one another。 Such exhaustion of opportunities for mutually beneficial trade results in full employment。 By this theory it could not be otherwise。Of course； some workers will be unemployed。 But they will be unable to find work only because they are in a temporary search for a job or because they insist on pay that is unreasonably high。 Such unemployment is viewed as voluntary； and evokes no sympathy。Classical theory also tells us that financial markets will also be stable。 People will only make trades that they consider to benefit themselves。 When entering financial markets – buying stocks or bonds or taking out a mortgage or even very plex securities – they will do due diligence in seeing that what they are buying is worth what they or paying； or what they are selling。What this theory neglects is that there are times when people are too trusting。 And it also fails to take into account that if it can do so profitably； capitalism will produce not only what people really want； but also what they think they want。 It can produce the medicine people want to cure their ills。 That is what people really want。 But if it can do so profitably； it will also produce what people mistakenly want。It will produce snake oil。 Not only that： it may also produce the want for the snake oil itself。 That is a downside to capitalism。 Standard economic theory failed to take into account that buyers and sellers of assets might not be taking due diligence； and the marketplace was not selling them insurance against risk in the plex securities that they were buying； but was； instead； selling them the financial equivalent of snake oil。There is a broader moral to all this – about the nature of capitalism。 On the one hand； we want to take advantage of the wisdom of Adam Smith。 For the most part； the products produced by capitalism are what we really want； produced at a price that we are willing and able to pay。 On the other hand； when confidence is high； and since financial assets are hard to evaluate by those who are buying them； people will and do buy snake oil。 And when that is discovered； as it invariably must be； the confidence disappears and the economy goes sour。It is the role of the government at two levels to see that these events do not occur。 First； it has a duty to regulate asset markets so that people are not falsely lured into buying snake…oil assets。 Such standards for our financial assets make as much mon sense as the standards for the food we eat； or the purchase medicine we get from the pharmacy。 But we do not want to throw out the good parts of capitalism with the bad。 To take advantage of the good parts of capitalism； when fluctuations occur it is the role of the government to see that those who can and want to produce what others want to buy can do so。 It is the role of the government； through its counterbalancing fiscal and monetary policy； to maintain full employment。The principles behind such an economy are not the principles behind a socialist economy。 The government insofar as possible is only creating the macroeconomic conditions that will allow the economy to function well。That is the role of government。 Its role is to ensure a “wise laisser faire”。 This is not the free…for…all capitalism that has been remended by the current economic theory； and seems to have been accepted as gospel by economic planners； and also many economists； since the Thatcher and Reagan governments。 But it also is a significant middle way between those who see the economic disasters and unemployment of unfettered capitalism； on the one hand； and those who believe that the government should play no role at all。The idea that unfettered； unregulated capitalism would invariably produce the good outes was a wrong economic theory regarding how capitalist societies behave and what causes their crises。 That wrong economic theory fails to take account of how the anim